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<Research>Macquarie: Persistent Oversupply Fuels Structurally Bearish Oil Price View; Refining Biz Gains Advantage
Recommend 25 Positive 37 Negative 30 |
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Macquarie released a research report forecasting a severe oversupply in the oil market in 2025. The broker’s equity research team maintained a structurally bearish view on oil prices, believing that persistent supply-demand imbalances will gradually push prices back to the cost curve level, curbing supply growth. The broker cut its WTI average price forecast from approximately USD66 per barrel to USD65. During an oil price downturn, China’s refining business will hold certain advantages, the broker foresaw, predicting a considerable rebound in core refining margins this year, though partially offset by one-off inventory loss in 1Q25 on falling oil prices. Among the "Big Three" oil companies, Macquarie ranked its stock preferences as SINOPEC CORP (00386.HK)> CNOOC (00883.HK)> PETROCHINA (00857.HK). It assigned an Outperform rating to SINOPEC CORP and CHINA OILFIELD (02883.HK), with target prices of HKD5.1 and HKD12.1, respectively. Macquarie anticipated that PETROCHINA is defending prices by sacrificing market share in East and South China, giving it an Underperform rating with a target price raised to HKD4. The broker also assigned an Underperform rating to CNOOC, increasing its target price from HKD8.9 to HKD10.6. AAStocks Financial News |
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