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<Research>CMBI Lifts Alibaba (BABA.US) TP to USD158.8; Solid Start to New Fiscal Year
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CMB International's research report indicated that BABA-W (09988.HK) reported revenue of RMB247.7 billion for the first fiscal quarter ending March 31, 2026, marking a YoY growth of 1.8%, which was 2% below the market consensus. The broker forecast that intense competition in quick commerce, particularly in the food delivery category, may persist until 2QFY26, but competition was expected to de-fuse after the peak in 4Q.

CMB International raised Alibaba's (BABA.US) target price to USD158.8 from the previous target of USD141.2, factoring in a more optimistic business development outlook for Alibaba China E-commerce Group (ACEG) and an improved valuation for the Cloud Intelligence Group (CIG) due to better revenue growth prospects. The rating was Buy.

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CMB International's revenue forecast for 2026 remained largely intact. Yet the broker raised Alibaba's revenue forecasts for 2027 and 2028 by 1% and 3%, respectively, reflecting better-than-expected revenue growth prospects for ACEG and CIG. This also led the broker to increase its non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2027-28 by 2% each.
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