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<Foresight>Brokers Project BABA-W 2FQ Adj. NP to Slip 77%; Focus on Quick Commerce, Cloud, AI Investment Guidance
Recommend 19 Positive 21 Negative 17 |
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BABA-W (09988.HK) will announce its second fiscal quarter results for the period ending September 30, 2025, next Tuesday (25th). Affected by the fierce competition in the food delivery market, the competition in quick commerce, and investments related to AI, this website, based on a combined forecast of 8 brokers, estimated that Alibaba's non-GAAP net profit for 2QFY26 is between RMB8.238 billion and RMB11.2 billion, down 69.3-77.4% compared to RMB36.518 billion in 2QFY25, with a median of RMB8.238 billion, representing a YoY decrease of 77.4%. According to forecasts from 16 brokers, Alibaba's revenue for 2QFY26 was expected to range from RMB236.229 billion to RMB247.652 billion, compared to RMB236.503 billion in 2QFY25, representing a YoY drop of 0.1% to a rise of 4.7%, with a median of RMB242.39 billion, up 2.5% YoY. According to forecasts from 15 brokers, Alibaba's EBITA for 2QFY26 was expected to range from RMB5.901 billion to RMB8.205 billion, compared to RMB40.561 billion in 2QFY25, representing a YoY plunge of 79.8-85.5%, with a median of RMB6.5 billion, a YoY decrease of nearly 84%. Investors will focus on Alibaba Cloud's revenue growth. The market will also focus on the latest guidance on related business and capex trends, the latest competition between food delivery and quick commerce, the synergy between quantitative quick commerce and Taobao and Tmall Group, the incremental contribution of quick commerce to CMR growth, and the economic improvement trend of quick commerce units. Brokers | 2QFY26 Non-GAAP Net Profit Forecast (RMB) | YoY Change CMBI| RMB11.2 billion | -69.3% JPMorgan| RMB11 billion | -69.9% UBS | RMB10.855 billion | -70.3% Macquarie | RMB9.275 billion | -74.6% Citi | RMB9.045 billion | -75.2% Morgan Stanley | RMB10.029 billion | -72.5% Daiwa | RMB8.412 billion | -77% CICC | RMB8.238 billion | -77.4% Based on Alibaba's 2QFY25 non-GAAP net profit of RMB36.518 billion. ------------------------------------------------------------ Brokers| Adjusted EBITA for 2QFY26 (RMB) | YoY Change Goldman Sachs | RMB8.205 billion | -79.8% Daiwa | RMB7.992 billion | -80.3% CICC | RMB7.752 billion | -80.9% Huatai Securities | RMB7.74 billion | -80.9% BOCOMI| RMB7.54 billion | -81.4% Citi | RMB6.871 billion | -83.1% Nomura | RMB6.74 billion | -83.4% BofA Securities | RMB6.5 billion | -84% UBS | RMB6.465 billion | -84.1% CCBI| RMB6.356 billion | -84.3% CMBI| RMB6.1 billion | -85% Morgan Stanley | RMB6.057 billion | -85.1% HSBC Global Research | RMB6 billion | -85.2% Jefferies | RMB6 billion | -85.2% CLSA | RMB5.901 billion | -85.5% Based on Alibaba's adjusted EBITA of RMB40.561 billion recorded in 2QFY25. AASTOCKS Financial News Website: www.aastocks.com |
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