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<Research>CICC Keeps Optimistic HSI Forecast at 26,000, Suggests Holding 'Dividend + Tech Internet' Combination as Base Allocation
Recommend 49 Positive 77 Negative 24 |
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CICC said in its report on Hong Kong stock strategies that the market has been volatile and directionless over the past two months. On one hand, expectations and positions in the technology growth sector remain high, making investors sensitive to negative news. Concerns about an AI bubble in the US market and cooling expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, meanwhile, have stirred the pot to create even bigger fluctuations, once sinking the HSTECH from its peak by as much as 16.6%. On the other hand, domestic demand consumption and the property chain, though attractive in valuation and positioning, have seen their fundamentals weaken rapidly, making it hard for investors to reach a consensus. Against this backdrop, dividend plays have become the preferred choice in this "in-between" environment, with the banking sector rebounding nearly 10% since the end of September. CICC's optimistic target of 26,000 for the HSI still appears appropriate. Even though it briefly broke through that level in October, the broker didn't revise it upward, and this stance has so far been validated. Overall, investors can continue to adopt a barbell portfolio (dividends + technology/ internet) as a core allocation, dynamically adjusting weights based on crowding levels to achieve effective hedging and balance. On this basis, export-driven cyclical sectors (such as copper, aluminum, chemicals, construction machinery, and even the property chain) and innovative pharmaceuticals can serve as flexible additions to the portfolio. In contrast, domestic demand consumption sectors will likely remain weighed down by weak fundamentals. AAStocks Financial News |
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