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<Research>BOCI: CN Auto Industry's Policy of Stabilizing Domestic Demand Clear for Next Yr; Export Growth May Beat
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The wholesale volumes of passenger vehicles in Mainland China in November charted narrow growth both YoY and MoM, BOCI released a research report saying. In view of the base effect from last year and further tightening of the “Two New” policies, the broker anticipated a further expansion in the YoY decline in December retail sales. However, in BOCI’s view, the “abnormal” cooling of retail terminal data in 4Q due to policy disturbances does not reflect the true purchasing intentions and demands of domestic consumers. The broker was confident that if the optimization of the “Two New” policies is implemented as soon as possible, the lack of a “carry-over effect” at the end of the year may favor a jumpstart for the car market next year. Besides, the broker advised against excessive pessimism regarding next year's auto consumption policies, given the clear automotive industry's policy of stabilizing domestic demand for next year. BOCI stated that passenger vehicle exports in Mainland China in November hiked by 48.7% YoY to 624,000 units, way above expectations. It predicted that the strong export growth trend will continue next year and may surpass expectations. Furthermore, it noted that some investors are concerned about potential adverse impacts on China's passenger vehicle exports next year due to tariffs and other trade or non-trade barriers. The broker viewed that the overall export slowdown from 4Q24 to 1H25 was indeed affected by the spread of trade protectionism, such as EU anti-subsidy tariffs, and declining demand in key markets. However, Chinese brands swiftly adapted their export models, regions, and methods, driving passenger vehicle export volumes back to a rapid growth trajectory from mid-year, which fully demonstrates the comprehensive enhancement of Chinese automakers' overseas capabilities and the resilience of demand in diverse export markets. AASTOCKS Financial News Website: www.aastocks.com |
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