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<Research>JPM: Venezuelan Situation Has Limited Impact on Major CN Oil Firms, May Benefit Chemical Stocks
Recommend 29 Positive 40 Negative 22 |
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In JPMorgan's estimate, Venezuela's oil production may experience some brief fluctuations and drop by 50% after Nicolas Maduro's departure. If political and operational stability is restored, however, production may swiftly return to 1.4 million barrels per day within two years and reach 2.5 million barrels per day over the next decade, compared to the current production of only 800,000-900,000 barrels per day. Regarding the impact on Chinese oil companies, although Venezuelan crude accounted for 4% of China's total crude oil imports in 2025, most of it was processed by independent or small refineries rather than listed companies like SINOPEC CORP (00386.HK) or PETROCHINA (00857.HK) because of US sanctions. Coupled with the fact that SINOPEC CORP and CNOOC (00883.HK) have no commercial assets in Venezuela, JPMorgan believes losing Venezuelan crude will only have a limited impact on China's refining industry, as it can be replaced with other crude oil sources. In terms of stocks, JPMorgan is optimistic about PETROCHINA, highlighting its successful decoupling from oil prices through its local natural gas business. As lower oil prices and interest rate environments may speed up the recovery of oil-based chemical stocks, the broker has also given HLGF (600346.SH) an Overweight rating. In contrast, SINOPEC CORP has been rated as Neutral owing to its weak short-term earnings prospects. AAStocks Financial News |
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