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Fitch: Decline in CN Real Estate Sales Eases This Yr w/ Uncertainty in HK Office Leasing Demand
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China's homebuilding sector is expected to continue to contract in 2026, but the decline in sales and GFA sold will be more moderate compared to last year, Tyran Kam, Senior Director and Head of China Property at Fitch Ratings, said.

It is estimated that the new home sales value will fall by 7-8% to less than RMB7 trillion, driven by a 5% decline in GFA sold and a low-single-digit drop in average selling prices.

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In Hong Kong's commercial real estate sector, Kam added that, the operating environment is likely to remain challenging in 2026. Recent industry research suggests occupancy rates are stabilizing, aided by active capital market in Hong Kong, although there is uncertainly over whether office leasing momentum can be sustained. Supply additions will continue to test absorption and keep vacancies high through 2026.
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